华北地块北缘金矿预测   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3  

李钟山  范继璋 《吉林大学学报(地球科学版)》2004,34(2):292-296

对华北地块北缘的金矿进行了成因分类,共分为3大类7亚类.利用地质体单元法对3大金矿类型进行了单元划分,共划分出214个单元.在综合信息成矿理论的指导下,对本区的岩浆重熔热液型金矿、岩浆同熔热液型金矿床以及火山-次火山热液型金矿床分别采用特征分析,对矿产资源的产出位置进行了估计,采用成矿概率估计对各单元的成矿可能性进行分级,共预测出24个最有远景的工作区.  相似文献   

Probabilistic Approach of Coastal Defense Against Typhoon Attacks for Nuclear Power Plant     

刘德辅  韩凤亭  庞亮  李华军  谢波涛  王风清 《中国海洋工程》2010,24(2):265-275

With the global wanning and sea level rising, it is widely recognized that there is an increasing tendency of typhoon occurrence frequency and intensity. The defenses code against typhoon attacks for nuclear power plant should be calibrated because of the increasing threat of typhoon disaster and severe consequences. This paper discusses the probabilistic approach of definitions about "probable maximum typhoon" and "probable maximum storm surge" in nuclear safety regulations of China and has made some design code calibrations by use of a newly proposed Double Layer Nested Multi-objective Probability Model (DLNMPM).  相似文献   

Probability of Sediment Incipient Motion Under Complex Flows     

刘春嵘  邓丽颖  呼和敖德 《中国海洋工程》2010,24(1):93-104

Presented in this paper is a mathematical model to calculate the probability of the sediment incipient motion,in which the effects of the fluctuating pressure and the seepage are considered.The instantaneous bed shear velocity and the pressure gradient on the bed downstream of the backward-facing step flow are obtained according to the PIV measurements.It is found that the instantaneous pressure gradient on the bed obeys normal distribution.The probability of the sediment incipient motion on the bed downstream of the backward-facing step flow is given by the mathematical model.The predicted results agree well with the experiment in the region downstream of the reattachment point while a large discrepancy between the theory and experiment is seen in the region near the reattachment point.The possible reasons for this discrepancy are discussed.  相似文献   

Quadrature-based approach for the efficient evaluation of surge hazard   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

G.R. Toro  A.W. Niedoroda  D. Divoky 《Ocean Engineering》2010,37(1):114-124

The Joint Probability Method (JPM) has been used for hurricane surge frequency analysis for over three decades, and remains the method of choice owing to the limitations of more direct historical methods. However, use of the JPM approach in conjunction with the modern generation of complex high-resolution numerical models (used to describe winds, waves, and surge) has become highly inefficient, owing to the large number of costly storm simulations that are typically required. This paper describes a new approach to the selection of the storm simulation set that permits reduction of the JPM computational effort by about an order of magnitude (compared to a more conventional approach) while maintaining good accuracy. The method uses an integration scheme called Bayesian or Gaussian-process quadrature (together with conventional integration methods) to evaluate the multi-dimensional joint probability integral over the space of storm parameters (pressure, radius, speed, heading, and any others found to be important) as a weighted summation over a relatively small set of optimally selected nodes (synthetic storms). Examples of an application of the method are shown, drawn from the recent post-Katrina study of coastal Mississippi.  相似文献   

软件模块故障倾向预测方法研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

罗云锋  普杰  贲可荣 《武汉大学学报(信息科学版)》2010,(5)

研究了在区分故障严重程度下的软件模块故障倾向预测方法,将故障分为高严重程度和低严重程度两种类型,用统计分析和机器学习方法分析静态代码度量与故障倾向之间的关系。以公开和私有两种类型的失效数据集作为实验数据,分析发现,故障的严重程度影响预测性能,预测不同严重程度的故障需要选择不同的度量和分类模型,预测低严重程度故障的性能好于预测高严重程度故障的性能。  相似文献   

Uncertainty,entropy, scaling and hydrological stochastics. 1. Marginal distributional properties of hydrological processes and state scaling / Incertitude,entropie, effet d'échelle et propriétés stochastiques hydrologiques. 1. Propriétés distributionnelles marginales des processus hydrologiques et échelle d'état     

《水文科学杂志》2013,58(3)

Abstract

The well-established physical and mathematical principle of maximum entropy (ME), is used to explain the distributional and autocorrelation properties of hydrological processes, including the scaling behaviour both in state and in time. In this context, maximum entropy is interpreted as maximum uncertainty. The conditions used for the maximization of entropy are as simple as possible, i.e. that hydrological processes are non-negative with specified coefficients of variation (CV) and lag one autocorrelation. In this first part of the study, the marginal distributional properties of hydrological variables and the state scaling behaviour are investigated. Application of the ME principle under these very simple conditions results in the truncated normal distribution for small values of CV and in a nonexponential type (Pareto) distribution for high values of CV. In addition, the normal and the exponential distributions appear as limiting cases of these two distributions. Testing of these theoretical results with numerous hydrological data sets on several scales validates the applicability of the ME principle, thus emphasizing the dominance of uncertainty in hydrological processes. Both theoretical and empirical results show that the state scaling is only an approximation for the high return periods, which is merely valid when processes have high variation on small time scales. In other cases the normal distributional behaviour, which does not have state scaling properties, is a more appropriate approximation. Interestingly however, as discussed in the second part of the study, the normal distribution combined with positive autocorrelation of a process, results in time scaling behaviour due to the ME principle.  相似文献   

Efficient methods of discharge measurements in rivers and streams based on the probability concept     

Chao‐Lin Chiu  Shih‐Meng Hsu  Ning‐Chien Tung 《水文研究》2005,19(20):3935-3946

Regularities exist in fluid flows and can be represented by a set of constants. These constants are functions of the parameter of a probability distribution that exhibits resilience and stability under various flow conditions. Together, these regularities form a network and interact with each other, such that if one is known then the others can be determined from it. The regularities and their network explain the various fluid‐flow phenomena and can be used in analysis of rivers and streams. For example, they can be used as the basis to develop simple and efficient methods of discharge measurements as presented herein, which only require velocity sampling at a single point on a water surface or a few points on a single vertical. Because of their simplicity and the short time requirement, these methods can be easily automated for collecting discharge data in unsteady, high flows that are badly needed for real‐time flow forecasting and design of flood control structures, and for advancing the fundamental, scientific knowledge in hydrology. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

西安白鹿塬北缘黄土边坡稳定的可靠度分析   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3  

王阿丹  王昌业  李萍  李同录 《地球科学与环境学报》2012,(1):104-110

在西安白鹿塬北缘实测了14个黄土自然边坡断面,建立了地质模型,通过采样测试并收集已有的测试资料,获得了各时代黄土地层的物理力学参数,将Morgenstern-Price法稳定性计算公式作为极限状态方程,分别采用Monte-Carlo法和Duncan法进行了边坡稳定的可靠度分析。结果表明:采用Monte-Carlo法和Duncan法得到的14个边坡稳定系数分别为1.11～1.41和1.09～1.33,显示这些边坡处于基本稳定—稳定状态;采用上述两种方法得到的边坡可靠指标分别为0.56～1.79和0.39～1.60,得到的失效概率分别为3.4%～29.0%和5.5%～34.8%,并且共有75%的边坡失效概率大于10%,失效可能性较大。统计结果表明:白鹿塬区边坡的坡高和坡度存在负相关性。低而陡的边坡潜在最危险滑面剪出口较高,失效概率较小;坡高达到50m及以上时,边坡高而缓,剪出口较低,失效概率较大,其中河流下切深,有N2泥岩出露的极高边坡,稳定性最差。Duncan法求解的稳定系数略小于Monte-Carlo法求得的结果,而前者求解的失效概率略大于后者,两种方法计算结果较为接近。由于Duncan法理论简单,计算量小,更宜于在实际工程中应用。  相似文献   

基于地质统计先验信息的储层物性参数同步反演   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3  

印兴耀  孙瑞莹  王保丽  张广智 《应用地球物理》2014,11(3):311-320

本文提出的储层物性参数同步反演是一种高分辨率的非线性反演方法,该方法综合利用岩石物理和地质统计先验信息,在贝叶斯理论框架下,首先通过变差结构分析得到合理的变差函数,进而利用快速傅里叶滑动平均模拟算法（Fast Fourier TransformMoving Average,FFT-MA）和逐渐变形算法（Gradual Deformation Method,GDM）得到基于地质统计学的储层物性参数先验信息,然后根据统计岩石物理模型建立弹性参数与储层物性参数之间的关系,构建似然函数,最终利用Metropolis算法实现后验概率密度的抽样,得到物性参数反演结果。并将此方法处理了中国陆上探区的一块实际资料,本方法的反演结果具有较高的分辨率,与测井数据吻合度较高;由于可以直接反演储层物性参数,避免了误差的累积,大大减少了不确定性的传递,且计算效率较高。  相似文献   

应用岩性统计方法判别沉积相^*——以珠江口盆地三角洲沉积为例     

余烨  张昌民  张尚锋  施和生  杜家元  朱锐 《古地理学报》2011,13(3):271-277

传统的沉积相分析方法人为影响因素较大,对于相同的沉积构造、曲线形态及地震反射特征,不同人可能会有不同的认识,而岩性相对比较容易识别,并且能通过精密的仪器准确获得,因此,利用岩性数据进行沉积相判别,可以避免沉积相分析过程中人为认识相标志不同造成的差异。作者以珠江口盆地三角洲沉积的岩性数据为基础,通过对能够反映沉积速率、沉积物供给量及沉积水动力条件的不同岩性地层的厚度和层数的统计,选取单层厚度、地层厚度比、出现频率及层数比等统计参数,以交汇图、岩性百分含量三角图及箱线图为依托,最终建立各沉积亚相的定量判别标准。通过检验,其准确率在75％左右,可见该方法基本可行,为沉积相定量化研究提供了一种可供借鉴的方法。  相似文献